We’re into the final week of the campaign, and posts here have been thin on the ground – largely because the polls have hardly been moving! It is looking increasingly likely that they’re not going to move sigificantly in the next few days either, so here’s a quick run-down of where we’re likely to end … Continue reading
Latest Entries
Targets Acquired
It’s been a while! The polls haven’t been moving much, which is largely why I haven’t been updating, but I have been doing a bit more work on Electobot. The main bit of function I’ve just added is the ability to export a summary of how ofen each consituency has been won by each party, … Continue reading
New Year, New Polls
It’s been a while, hasn’t it? Here we are in a new year, and the polls have just started to pick up after the Christmas break. Here’s all the simulations since my last post back in November. Still pretty steady, it seems, although that definitely looks like a bulge of Labour support towards the end … Continue reading
Weekend Summary
Things continue to go poorly for Labour, but has it had an impact on the polls? Let’s find out, with the latest master graph. Things seem to be continuing much as before. Zooming in to the last two weeks: On average, that’s not a lot of movement. Some worrying signs for the Conservatives, though – … Continue reading
UKIP’s Stealth Targets
In the wake of Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP (and his subsequent sweeping back into Parliament), I found out something I didn’t know at the last election. To quote BBC News: This is a new fight for UKIP. It was only last year that the party set up an association in Clacton. Mr Carswell is … Continue reading
Weekend Summary
A rumoured coup attempt on Ed Miliband, a reduction in the EU bill…it doesn’t seem like this has been a good wekk for Labour. Do the polls reflect that? Let’s cut to the chase with the last two weeks’ predictions. That right there is a confusinfg set of polls. We have a dramatic narrowing between … Continue reading
Predicting Scotland
The overwhelming problem with a uniform-swing-based model like Electobot is that swing is not uniform across the country. While I’ve tried to mitigate this in various ways, the model is still reasonably dependent on different regions not having wildly different politics. This is a problem when it comes to Scotland. After a long and intensely-fought … Continue reading
Weekend Summary
It’s been a week where the Government seemed pretty much under fire, and the Coalition partners started fighting even more than usual. One might think that this would lead to Labour bouncing back from their recent losses in support. In reality, though…well, let’s see the master graph. No obvious recovery, with Labour still firmly below … Continue reading
Weekend Summary
The clocks have gone back but the polls have marched onward. Here’s the master graph! (I’ve updated the format a little – the line has now been removed, as this misleadingly overemphasised outliers and arbitrarily gave one poll undue prominence when several were on the same day. I’ve replaced it with markers to show the … Continue reading
A Tale Of Two Parties
In so far as there has been a “story” in terms of polling since the last election, it has largely been dominated by the precipitous decline of the Liberal Democrats, and the remarkable rise of UKIP. Within a matter of months after the General Election, the Lib Dems went from a comfortable low-20s poll figure … Continue reading
Electobot: The Blog 