We’re into the final week of the campaign, and posts here have been thin on the ground – largely because the polls have hardly been moving! It is looking increasingly likely that they’re not going to move sigificantly in the next few days either, so here’s a quick run-down of where we’re likely to end up on Friday, based on each pollster’s latest prediction (in no particular order).
YouGov
YouGov’s latest poll had a topline result of CON 34, LAB 33, LD 9, UKIP 12, GRN 5. That comes out of Electobot as the following (after 1000 simulations):
Mean number of seats per-party (95% confidence intervals): Labour: 297.736 (276.85-318.62) Conservative: 260.05 (238.75-281.35) Lib-Dem: 42.773 (32.18-53.37) UKIP: 11.902 (4.98-18.82) SNP: 10.598 (6.08-15.12) Other: 3.797 (0.60-7.00) PC: 3.245 (0.88-5.61) Green: 0.788 (-0.55-2.13) BNP: 0.111 (-0.55-0.78)
Take about 40 seats off Labour and about 10 off the Lib Dems and give them to the SNP (to allow for the SNP’s likely near-total domination of Scotland), and we end up with the Conservatives likely to very narrowly remain the largest party, with no combination of the three largest parties able to command a majority.
Survation
The most recent poll from Survation came out as CON 31, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 17, GRN 4. That gives us the following:
Mean number of seats per-party (95% confidence intervals): Labour: 316.331 (295.91-336.75) Conservative: 217.215 (196.74-237.69) UKIP: 40.631 (27.51-53.75) Lib-Dem: 40.562 (30.11-51.01) SNP: 9.326 (5.09-13.56) Other: 3.156 (0.17-6.14) PC: 2.944 (0.69-5.20) Green: 0.73 (-0.60-2.06) BNP: 0.105 (-0.53-0.74)
Apply the same changes to these results, and we’re looking at Labour being comfortably the largest party, although we’re still in the same boat regarding the lack of possible coalitions. (Note that although UKIP are likely over-predicted to a fairly ridiculous degree here, it doesn’t really matter – most of the seats they’re predicted to take here will probably actually go to the Tories, but even if all 40-odd did that, Labout would still be the largest party.)
Opinium
The latest from Opinium suggests a breakdown of CON 35, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 5. 1000 simulations later, we have the following:
Mean number of seats per-party (95% confidence intervals): Labour: 300.008 (280.05-319.97) Conservative: 262.758 (242.24-283.28) Lib-Dem: 38.353 (28.30-48.40) UKIP: 13.615 (6.53-20.70) SNP: 9.653 (5.08-14.23) PC: 3.023 (0.59-5.46) Other: 2.722 (-0.05-5.49) Green: 0.758 (-0.63-2.15) BNP: 0.11 (-0.54-0.76)
Once we do the Scottish changes again, we’re left with another very close finish, with the Conservatives probably just a nose ahead. Still no chance of a majority coalition, though.
ComRes
The latest poll from ComRes is an interesting one, as it’s got the two largest parties exactly neck-and-neck – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 7. Electobot thinks this will give us the following:
Mean number of seats per-party (95% confidence intervals): Labour: 303.489 (282.93-324.04) Conservative: 250.661 (230.46-270.86) Lib-Dem: 41.457 (30.94-51.98) UKIP: 16.562 (8.31-24.81) SNP: 10.78 (6.20-15.36) PC: 3.368 (1.01-5.73) Other: 3.175 (0.33-6.02) Green: 1.387 (-0.67-3.44) BNP: 0.121 (-0.55-0.79)
That leaves us with Labour in a small, but noticeable lead, although yet again there’s no clear route to a majority. The only other thing to note here is that the extra couple of percent for the Greens ensures that they get Brighton Pavilion, but they’re not going anywhere else.
Populus
Lastly, Populus’s most recent poll was another dead heat for the big two: CON 33, LAB 33, LD 9, UKIP 15, GRN 4. The slight rearrangement of the smaller parties’ support produces the following:
Mean number of seats per-party (95% confidence intervals): Labour: 299.777 (279.48-320.08) Conservative: 246.08 (225.32-266.84) Lib-Dem: 42.887 (32.04-53.74) UKIP: 25.028 (14.49-35.56) SNP: 10.151 (5.79-14.51) PC: 3.224 (0.88-5.56) Other: 3.101 (0.07-6.13) Green: 0.661 (-0.59-1.91) BNP: 0.091 (-0.51-0.69)
And that slight rearrangement makes no difference at all to the overall result – once again, it’s a small Labour lead with no winning majorities.
So, having looked at all of those pollsters, we have two Conservative leads, three Labour leads, the Lib Dems can always determine who makes up the largest voting bloc if they enter coalition, and no majorities are possible without the SNP. In short, it’s likely to be the least decisive result we’ve seen for a generation.
Electobot: The Blog 