Weekend Summary

Things continue to go poorly for Labour, but has it had an impact on the polls? Let’s find out, with the latest master graph. Things seem to be continuing much as before. Zooming in to the last two weeks: On average, that’s not a lot of movement. Some worrying signs for the Conservatives, though – … Continue reading →

UKIP’s Stealth Targets

In the wake of Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP (and his subsequent sweeping back into Parliament), I found out something I didn’t know at the last election. To quote BBC News: This is a new fight for UKIP. It was only last year that the party set up an association in Clacton. Mr Carswell is … Continue reading →

Weekend Summary

A rumoured coup attempt on Ed Miliband, a reduction in the EU bill…it doesn’t seem like this has been a good wekk for Labour. Do the polls reflect that? Let’s cut to the chase with the last two weeks’ predictions. That right there is a confusinfg set of polls. We have a dramatic narrowing between … Continue reading →

Predicting Scotland

The overwhelming problem with a uniform-swing-based model like Electobot is that swing is not uniform across the country. While I’ve tried to mitigate this in various ways, the model is still reasonably dependent on different regions not having wildly different politics. This is a problem when it comes to Scotland. After a long and intensely-fought … Continue reading →

Weekend Summary

It’s been a week where the Government seemed pretty much under fire, and the Coalition partners started fighting even more than usual. One might think that this would lead to Labour bouncing back from their recent losses in support. In reality, though…well, let’s see the master graph. No obvious recovery, with Labour still firmly below … Continue reading →