UKIP’s Stealth Targets

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In the wake of Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP (and his subsequent sweeping back into Parliament), I found out something I didn’t know at the last election. To quote BBC News:

This is a new fight for UKIP. It was only last year that the party set up an association in Clacton. Mr Carswell is so staunchly Eurosceptic that the party did not feel justified in challenging him before that.

It turns out that UKIP stood aside in the 2010 election for a number of MPs, including Mark Reckless, the defector who is about to stand for them in the Rochester and Strood by-election. This made me wonder whether my current predictions for both the Conservatives and UKIP are flawed – are there other candidates who may defect?

To find out, I’ve enhanced Electobot slightly to give me a list of constituencies where UKIP did not stand in 2010, and where the Conservatives are currently favoured to win heavily (with a majority of over 1000). Running 1000 simulations on the latest UKPR Polling Average (CON 32, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 16, GRN 5) provided the following list, with the biggest Conservative majorities at the top.

Richmond (Yorks) (mean CON majority 31081.2)
Aldridge-Brownhills (mean CON majority 22915.2)
Bexhill and Battle (mean CON majority 19424.1)
Tatton (mean CON majority 18682.2)
Haltemprice and Howden (mean CON majority 17650.9)
* Clacton (mean CON majority 18360.0)
* Rochester and Strood (mean CON majority 16236.2)
Shipley (mean CON majority 15373.1)
Kettering (mean CON majority 14760.0)
Hexham (mean CON majority 8532.4)
Castle Point (mean CON majority 11002.6)
Nuneaton (mean CON majority 7474.3)
Corby (mean CON majority 6939.3)
Wakefield (mean CON majority 5688.4)
Dewsbury (mean CON majority 4526.1)
Ealing Southall (mean CON majority 5212.2)
Hayes and Harlington (mean CON majority 4689.1)
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (mean CON majority 5207.8)
Warrington North (mean CON majority 4776.4)
Batley and Spen (mean CON majority 4353.1)
Bradford East (mean CON majority 4100.5)
Banff and Buchan (mean CON majority 4044.4)
Greenwich and Woolwich (mean CON majority 4586.5)
Leeds East (mean CON majority 3733.7)
Hemsworth (mean CON majority 3227.6)
Huddersfield (mean CON majority 3684.9)
Edinburgh West (mean CON majority 3708.8)
Jarrow (mean CON majority 3694.2)
Leeds Central (mean CON majority 3657.1)
Argyll and Bute (mean CON majority 2850.7)
South Shields (mean CON majority 3271.0)
East Ham (mean CON majority 3221.6)
Vauxhall (mean CON majority 3947.1)
Birkenhead (mean CON majority 2716.3)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (mean CON majority 2806.4)
Makerfield (mean CON majority 2730.6)
Edinburgh South West (mean CON majority 3208.5)
Gordon (mean CON majority 2793.0)
Camberwell and Peckham (mean CON majority 2667.4)
Streatham (mean CON majority 3522.4)
Hackney North and Stoke Newington (mean CON majority 2627.1)
Blaydon (mean CON majority 3572.7)
Ayrshire Central (mean CON majority 3450.3)
Bethnal Green and Bow (mean CON majority 2196.1)
Newcastle upon Tyne East (mean CON majority 1858.8)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark (mean CON majority 3635.0)
Lewisham Deptford (mean CON majority 2430.4)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North (mean CON majority 2231.0)
Ayrshire North and Arran (mean CON majority 1952.0)
Edinburgh South (mean CON majority 1761.3)
Manchester Gorton (mean CON majority 2122.5)
Brent Central (mean CON majority 3857.0)
Hornsey and Wood Green (mean CON majority 2055.0)

(Constituencies with a * next to them are those where the MP has already defected to UKIP.)

Obviously, from the numbers alone we can’t tell in each seat whether UKIP stood aside for ideological reasons or for pragmatic ones (if they felt they couldn’t possibly beat the Conservative candidate, they may have felt it was wiser not to waste any money on a deposit or on campaigning). Still, that is a long list – in the unlikely event that all the above MPs defect and all win their seats, the Conservatives would end up with somewhere around 184 seats (down from a predicted 236) and UKIP would have 85 (up from a predicted 33). This wouldn’t change the outcome of the election (which would see a LAB-LD coalition safely into power), but it would be an absolute disaster for the Conservatives.

So, who should we keep an eye on for further defections, particularly if Mark Reckless wins his seat back? Let’s see who’s in the top 10 seats I’ve identified.

  • Richmond (Yorks): William Hague. No chance of a defection, particularly as he’s stepping down at the 2015 election.
  • Aldridge-Brownhills: Richard Shepherd. Based on his voting record, I’d say he’s definitely one to watch.
  • Bexhill and Battle: Gregory Barker. He’s had a ministerial portfolio on energy and climate change for years. Doesn’t sound like UKIP material to me, but who knows…
  • Tatton: George Osborne. Not a chance!
  • Haltemprice and Howden: David Davis. Again, this is unlikely.
  • Clacton and Rochester and Strood we already know about, so let’s skip past those.
  • Shipley: Philip Davies. Not sure. Bit of a rebel, certainly, and his record comes across as fairly Eurosceptic. Wouldn’t entirely surprise me to see him jump ship.
  • Kettering: Philip Hollobone. Very similar record to Philip Davies, so I wouldn’t bet against him either.
  • Hexham: Guy Opperman. Unlikely – anyone who gets published in the same document as Caroline Lucas is not going to be catching Nigel Farage’s eye any time soon, I’ll bet.

Assuming this kind of pattern repeats itself, I reckon our list of 52 defections is realistically going to be reduced to less than 20. Of course, we won’t know for certain until any defectors reveal themselves, which may not even be until the nominations are made for the election. Looks like we’ll have to wait and see.

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