Weekend Summary

Things continue to go poorly for Labour, but has it had an impact on the polls? Let’s find out, with the latest master graph.

Things seem to be continuing much as before. Zooming in to the last two weeks:

On average, that’s not a lot of movement. Some worrying signs for the Conservatives, though – despite hammering in the idea that Ed Miliband isn’t prime ministerial material, Conservative support is not getting any better, and Labour have sen a couple of predicted victories in the middle of the week. Some interesting jumps in UKIP support as well, with peaks at the end of the week – this may be an indication that the pollsters who return high UKIP results tend to do fieldwork around then, or it may indicate that a different demographic tends to answer more on Fridays.

Lastly, here’s the results from 1000 simulated elections based on the current UKPR Polling Average (CON 32, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 5).

Labour are in power in very nearly all of these simulations, and with an average shortfall of 18.1 seats they’re in touching distance of a majority (they managed this in 4.4% of simulations). UKIP are slumping a little, and as ever the Lib Dems hold steady.