It’s been a while, hasn’t it? Here we are in a new year, and the polls have just started to pick up after the Christmas break. Here’s all the simulations since my last post back in November.
Still pretty steady, it seems, although that definitely looks like a bulge of Labour support towards the end of December. There’s also an intriguing couple of spikes of Lib Dem support, and regular excursions to the 40-50 seat region for UKIP from their normal 20-odd result.
That means the master graph now looks like this:
Labour’s got a long way to go to recover from their slump at the end of 2014, but their trend is currently upwards – likewise, the Conservatives have a lot to do to drag them back down. Meanwhile, UKIP’s burst of unpredictability centred on their defections seems to be settling down a little.
With only a few months left to go until the election, let’s take a look at the overall snapshot from the UKPR Polling Average (currently Labour 34, Conversative 31, Lib Dem 8, UKIP 15, Green 5).
Labour’s almost bang on the winning line – they had an outright victory in 44% of simulations, with all the remaining simulations returning a hung Parliament where the only plausible coalition was Lab-Lib.
Electobot: The Blog 