It’s been a week where the Government seemed pretty much under fire, and the Coalition partners started fighting even more than usual. One might think that this would lead to Labour bouncing back from their recent losses in support. In reality, though…well, let’s see the master graph.
No obvious recovery, with Labour still firmly below the winning post. Zooming in to the last two weeks’ worth of polling:
What looks like a recovery for Labour and a loss for UKIP quickly reverses itself, leaving the parties largely back where they were at the start of the week. It’s interesting that Conservative support doesn’t move much; maybe UKIP really can take seats off Labour too.
Not much movement in the polls suggests that there won’t be much change in the per-party breakdown based on today’s UKPR polling average (CON 32, LAB 33, LD 8. UKIP 17, GRN 5). And, indeed:
Labour are still short by a considerable margin, gaining an outright majority in merely 1.7% of simulations. The rest are hung Parliaments, of which 96.6% would get across the winning line with the help of the Lib Dems, and (entertainingly) 0.4% would get them there if Caroline Lucas also joined in the fun. (Although when you have winning margins so tiny that the Greens can swing it, ad-hoc deals rather than formal coalitions are probably the way forward.)
Electobot: The Blog 